Working Paper: NBER ID: w17794
Authors: Nathan Nunn; Nancy Qian
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of U.S. food aid on conflict in recipient countries. To establish a causal relationship, we exploit time variation in food aid caused by fluctuations in U.S. wheat production together with cross-sectional variation in a country's tendency to receive any food aid from the United States. Our estimates show that an increase in U.S. food aid increases the incidence, onset and duration of civil conflicts in recipient countries. Our results suggest that the effects are larger for smaller scale civil conflicts. No effect is found on interstate warfare.
Keywords: food aid; civil conflict; humanitarian aid; US foreign aid
JEL Codes: D74; F35; H84
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| US food aid (F35) | civil conflict (D74) |
| increase in US food aid (F35) | incidence of civil conflict (D74) |
| US food aid (F35) | probability of onset of civil conflicts (D74) |
| US food aid (F35) | duration of civil conflicts (F51) |
| US wheat production (N52) | US food aid (F35) |