Working Paper: NBER ID: w17735
Authors: jeremy greenwood; nezih guner; georgi kocharkov; cezar santos
Abstract: Marriage has declined since 1960, with the drop being bigger for non-college educated individuals versus college educated ones. Divorce has increased, more so for the non-college educated vis-à-vis the college educated. Additionally, assortative mating has risen; i.e., people are more likely to marry someone of the same educational level today than in the past. A unified model of marriage, divorce, educational attainment and married female labor-force participation is developed and estimated to fit the postwar U.S. data. The role of technological progress in the household sector and shifts in the wage structure for explaining these facts is gauged.
Keywords: technology; family; marriage; divorce; educational attainment; female laborforce participation
JEL Codes: E13; J12; J22; O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Changes in Educational Attainment (I21) | Changes in Marriage Patterns (J12) |
| Technological Progress in Household Sector (O49) | Decline in Marriage Rates (J12) |
| Shifts in Wage Structure (J31) | Changes in Educational Attainment (I21) |
| Technological Progress in Household Sector (O49) | Increase in Female Labor Force Participation (J21) |
| Wage Structure Changes (J31) | Differential Effects by Education Level (I24) |
| Assortative Mating (C78) | Changes in Marriage Patterns (J12) |