Working Paper: NBER ID: w17694
Authors: David Card; Ana Rute Cardoso
Abstract: Although military conscription was widespread during most of the past century, credible evidence on the effects of mandatory service is limited. We provide new evidence on the long-term effects of peacetime conscription, using longitudinal data for Portuguese men born in 1967. These men were inducted at a relatively late age (21), allowing us to use pre-conscription wages to control for ability differences between conscripts and non-conscripts. We find that the average impact of military service for men who were working prior to age 21 is close to zero throughout the period from 2 to 20 years after their service. These small average effects arise from a significant 4-5 percentage point impact for men with only primary education, coupled with a zero-effect for men with higher education. The positive impacts for less-educated men suggest that mandatory service can be a valuable experience for those who might otherwise spend their careers in low-level jobs.
Keywords: military conscription; civilian wages; Portugal; labor market; difference-in-differences
JEL Codes: J24; J31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Military conscription (H56) | Civilian wages (J31) |
| Military conscription (H56) | Civilian wages for men with lower education levels (J31) |
| Pre-conscription wages (J39) | Post-service wages (J38) |
| Military conscription (H56) | Civilian wages for men with higher education (J45) |