Working Paper: NBER ID: w17600
Authors: John Cawley; Asako S. Moriya; Kosali I. Simon
Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of the macroeconomy on the health insurance coverage of Americans using panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for 2004-2010, a period that includes the Great Recession of 2007-09. We find that a one percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate is associated with a 1.67 percentage point (2.12%) reduction in the probability that men have health insurance; this effect is strongest among college-educated, white, and older (50-64 year old) men. For women and children, health insurance coverage is not significantly correlated with the unemployment rate, which may be the result of public health insurance acting as a social safety net. Compared to the previous recession, the health insurance coverage of men is more sensitive to the unemployment rate, which may be due to the nature of the Great Recession.
Keywords: health insurance; unemployment; Great Recession; public health insurance; SIPP
JEL Codes: E32; I13; J32; J6
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Job loss (J63) | Loss of employer-provided insurance (G52) |
| Changes in economic landscape (F69) | Insurance affordability and availability (G52) |
| State unemployment rate (J64) | Probability of men having health insurance coverage (I13) |
| State unemployment rate (J64) | Probability of women having health insurance coverage (I13) |
| State unemployment rate (J64) | Probability of children having health insurance coverage through government programs (I13) |