Working Paper: NBER ID: w17533
Authors: Susan Dynarski; Joshua M. Hyman; Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of early childhood investments on college enrollment and degree completion. We use the random assignment in the Project STAR experiment to estimate the effect of smaller classes in primary school on college entry, college choice, and degree completion. We improve on existing work in this area with unusually detailed data on college enrollment spells and the previously unexplored outcome of college degree completion. We find that assignment to a small class increases the probability of attending college by 2.7 percentage points, with effects more than twice as large among blacks. Among students enrolled in the poorest third of schools, the effect is 7.3 percentage points. Smaller classes increase the likelihood of earning a college degree by 1.6 percentage points and shift students towards high-earning fields such as STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics), business and economics. We find that test score effects at the time of the experiment are an excellent predictor of long-term improvements in postsecondary outcomes.
Keywords: childhood investments; postsecondary attainment; degree completion
JEL Codes: I21; I24; I28; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| assignment to a small class (C90) | probability of attending college (D29) |
| assignment to a small class (C90) | probability of attending college (black students) (I24) |
| assignment to a small class (C90) | probability of attending college (free lunch eligible students) (I24) |
| assignment to a small class (C90) | likelihood of earning a college degree (I24) |
| assignment to a small class (C90) | shift towards higher-earning fields (STEM and business) (J24) |