Working Paper: NBER ID: w17526
Authors: Alan Barreca; Price V. Fishback; Shawn Kantor
Abstract: The Agricultural Adjustment Act (AAA) caused a population shift in the United States in the 1930s. Evaluating the effects of the AAA on the incidence of malaria can therefore offer important lessons regarding the broader consequences of demographic changes. Using a quasi-first difference model and a robust set of controls, we find a negative association between AAA expenditures and malaria death rates at the county level. Further, we find the AAA caused relatively low-income groups to migrate from counties with high-risk malaria ecologies. These results suggest that the AAA-induced migration played an important role in the reduction of malaria.
Keywords: Agricultural Adjustment Act; Malaria; Migration; Public Health
JEL Codes: H3; H51; I15; N32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| AAA expenditures (G52) | migration of low-income groups (R23) |
| migration of low-income groups (R23) | malaria incidence (O15) |
| AAA expenditures (G52) | malaria incidence (O15) |
| AAA expenditures in neighboring counties (H75) | malaria death rates (I15) |
| AAA expenditures (G52) | malaria death rates (I15) |