Working Paper: NBER ID: w17423
Authors: Charles L. Baum; Shinyi Chou
Abstract: An increasing number of Americans are obese, with a body mass index of 30 or more. In fact, the latest estimates indicate that about 30% of Americans are currently obese, which is roughly a 100% increase from 25 years ago. It is well accepted that weight gain is caused by caloric imbalance, where more calories are consumed than expended. Nevertheless, it is not clear why the prevalence of obesity has increased so dramatically over the last 30 years. \n \nWe simultaneously estimate the effects of the various socio-economic factors on weight status, considering in our analysis many of the socio-economic factors that have been identified by other researchers as important influences on caloric imbalance: employment, physical activity at work, food prices, the prevalence of restaurants, cigarette smoking, cigarette prices and taxes, food stamp receipt, and urbanization. We use 1979- and 1997-cohort National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) data, which allows us to compare the prevalence of obesity between cohorts surveyed roughly 25 years apart. Using the traditional Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we find that cigarette smoking has the largest effect: the decline in cigarette smoking explains about 2% of the increase in the weight measures. The other significant factors explain less.
Keywords: Obesity; Socioeconomic Factors; Cigarette Smoking; Food Prices; Food Stamps
JEL Codes: I1; I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| decline in cigarette smoking (I12) | increase in weight measures (C43) |
| occupational fitness demands (J28) | BMI (I12) |
| occupational strength demands (J28) | BMI (I12) |
| food stamp receipt (I38) | obesity (I12) |
| urban sprawl (R11) | obesity (I12) |
| demographic factors (being male, black, Hispanic, older) (J79) | BMI and obesity rates (Y10) |