Working Paper: NBER ID: w17377
Authors: Quamrul H. Ashraf; David N. Weil; Joshua Wilde
Abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
Keywords: fertility; economic growth; demographic transition
JEL Codes: E17; J11; J13; J18; O11
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| exogenous reductions in fertility (J13) | output per capita (E23) |
| lower number of dependent children relative to working adults (J13) | output per capita (E23) |
| resource congestion and capital shallowing (E22) | output per capita (E23) |
| enhancement of human capital through reduced fertility (J24) | output per capita (E23) |