Working Paper: NBER ID: w17314
Authors: Nico Voigtländer; Hans-Joachim Voth
Abstract: Europeans restricted their fertility long before the Demographic Transition. By raising the marriage age of women and ensuring that a substantial proportion remained celibate, the "European Marriage Pattern" (EMP) reduced childbirths by up to one third between the 14th and 18th century. In a Malthusian environment, this translated into lower population pressure, raising average wages significantly, which in turn facilitated industrialization. We analyze the rise of this first socio-economic institution in history that limited fertility through delayed marriage. Our model emphasizes changes in agricultural production following the Black Death in 1348-50. The land-intensive production of pastoral products increased in relative importance. Using detailed data from England after 1290, we show that women had a comparative advantage in livestock farming. They often worked as servants in husbandry, where they remained unmarried until their mid-twenties. Where pastoral agriculture dominated, marriage occurred markedly later. Overall, we estimate that pastoral farming raised female age at first marriage by more than 4 years.\n
Keywords: European marriage pattern; fertility restriction; Black Death; pastoral farming; economic growth
JEL Codes: E20; N13; N33; O14; O41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased land-labor ratios after the Black Death (J19) | Higher female employment in pastoral agriculture (J43) |
| Higher female employment in pastoral agriculture (J43) | Delayed marriages (J12) |
| Delayed marriages (J12) | Lower fertility rates (J13) |
| Higher female employment in pastoral agriculture (J43) | Higher female age at first marriage (J12) |
| Increased land abundance after the Black Death (N93) | Delayed marriages (J12) |
| Increased land abundance after the Black Death (N93) | Lower fertility rates (J13) |
| The European marriage pattern (EMP) (J12) | Reduced childbirths (J13) |
| Reduced childbirths (J13) | Lower population pressure (J11) |
| Lower population pressure (J11) | Higher average wages (J31) |
| Increased land abundance after the Black Death (N93) | Higher-income steady state in Europe (O52) |