Working Paper: NBER ID: w17307
Authors: Raven Molloy; Christopher L. Smith; Abigail K. Wozniak
Abstract: We review patterns in migration within the US over the past thirty years. Internal migration has fallen noticeably since the 1980s, reversing increases from earlier in the century. The decline in migration has been widespread across demographic and socioeconomic groups, as well as for moves of all distances. Although a convincing explanation for the secular decline in migration remains elusive and requires further research, we find only limited roles for the housing market contraction and the economic recession in reducing migration recently. Despite its downward trend, migration within the US remains higher than that within most other developed countries.
Keywords: internal migration; U.S. migration trends; demographic changes; economic factors
JEL Codes: J1; J61; R23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Decline in internal migration in the U.S. since the 1980s (R23) | Migration rates falling across various demographic and socioeconomic groups (J11) |
| Aging population (J11) | Decline in internal migration (R23) |
| Economic factors (P42) | Migration rates (F22) |
| Procyclical nature of migration rates (J11) | Migration tends to increase during economic upturns and decrease during downturns (J60) |
| Housing market contraction (R31) | Small impact on migration patterns (F69) |
| Technological advancements (rise of telecommuting) (O49) | Reduced necessity for geographic mobility (J62) |
| Long-term trends (E32) | Decline in migration (F22) |