Working Paper: NBER ID: w17195
Authors: Georgiy Bobashev; Maureen L. Cropper; Joshua M. Epstein; D. Michael Goedecke; Stephen Hutton; Mead Over
Abstract: This paper examines positive externalities and complementarities in the use of antiviral pharmaceuticals to mitigate pandemic influenza. The paper demonstrates the presence of treatment externalities in simple epidemiological SIR models, and then through simulations of a Global Epidemiological Model, in which the pandemic spreads between cities through the international airline network, and between cities and rural areas through ground transport. While most treatment benefits are private, spillovers may mean that it is in the self-interest of rich countries to pay for some AV treatment in poor countries. The most cost-effective policy is for rich countries to donate doses to the outbreak source country; however, donating doses to poor countries in proportion to their populations may also be cost-effective. These results depend on the transmissibility of the flu strain, the efficacy of antivirals in reducing transmissibility and on the proportion of infectious that can be identified and treated.
Keywords: Pandemic; Influenza; Antiviral Pharmaceuticals; Collective Action; Public Health
JEL Codes: D62; I18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Antiviral treatment in one country (O57) | Reduction in attack rates in other countries (F69) |
| Funding antiviral treatments in poorer countries (F35) | Decrease in domestic attack rates in wealthy countries (H56) |
| Donating antivirals to outbreak source country (F35) | Reduction in influenza cases in wealthy countries (I14) |
| Efficacy of antivirals and transmissibility of flu strain (C22) | Impact on pandemic spread (F60) |
| Marginal benefits from using antiviral supplies domestically (H56) | Benefits from donating doses abroad (F35) |