Working Paper: NBER ID: w17119
Authors: Eric P. Bettinger; Brent J. Evans; Devin G. Pope
Abstract: Colleges rely on the ACT exam in their admission decisions to increase their ability to differentiate between students likely to succeed and those that have a high risk of under-performing and dropping out. We show that two of the four sub tests of the ACT, English and Mathematics, are highly predictive of positive college outcomes while the other two subtests, Science and Reading, provide little or no additional predictive power. This result is robust across various samples, specifications, and outcome measures. We demonstrate that focusing solely on the English and Mathematics test scores greatly enhances the predictive validity of the ACT exam.
Keywords: ACT Exam; College Performance; Retention; Standardized Testing; Admissions
JEL Codes: I23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Mathematics score (C12) | College GPA (C29) |
| English score (C20) | College GPA (C29) |
| Reading score (Y10) | College GPA (C29) |
| Science score (C12) | College GPA (C29) |
| Mathematics score (C12) | Dropout rate (I21) |
| English score (C20) | Dropout rate (I21) |
| Reading score (Y10) | Dropout rate (I21) |
| Science score (C12) | Dropout rate (I21) |