Working Paper: NBER ID: w17099
Authors: Ebonya L. Washington
Abstract: Conventional wisdom and empirical academic research conclude that majority Black districts decrease Black representation by increasing conservatism in Congress. However, this research generally suffers from three limitations: 1) too low a level of aggregation 2) lack of a counterfactual and 3) failure to account for the endogeneity of the creation of majority minority districts. I compare congressional delegations of states that during the 1990 redistricting were under greater pressure to create majority minority districts with those under lesser pressure in a difference-in-difference framework. I find no evidence that the creation of majority minority districts leads to more conservative House delegations. In fact point estimates indicate that states that increased their share of majority Black districts saw their delegations grow increasingly liberal. I find similar results for majority Latino districts in the southwest. Thus I find no evidence for the common view that majority minority districts decrease minority representation in Congress.
Keywords: majority minority districts; black representation; redistricting; political representation
JEL Codes: D72; J15; K0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| majority minority districts (J15) | black representation in Congress (J79) |
| majority minority districts (J15) | conservative congressional delegation (D72) |
| increase in majority black districts (J79) | shift toward more liberal delegations (D72) |
| majority minority districts (J15) | increase in black representatives (J15) |
| majority minority districts (J15) | shift of voting record to the right (D72) |