Working Paper: NBER ID: w17094
Authors: Charles I. Jones
Abstract: Some technologies save lives -- new vaccines, new surgical techniques, safer highways. Others threaten lives -- pollution, nuclear accidents, global warming, the rapid global transmission of disease, and bioengineered viruses. How is growth theory altered when technologies involve life and death instead of just higher consumption? This paper shows that taking life into account has first-order consequences. Under standard preferences, the value of life may rise faster than consumption, leading society to value safety over consumption growth. As a result, the optimal rate of consumption growth may be substantially lower than what is feasible, in some cases falling all the way to zero.
Keywords: Economic Growth; Life-Saving Technologies; Safety; Consumption Growth; Existential Risks
JEL Codes: E0; I10; O3; O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Technological advancements (O33) | Life expectancy (J17) |
| Technological advancements (O33) | Consumption growth (E20) |
| Life-saving technologies (O33) | Safety prioritization (J28) |
| Safety prioritization (J28) | Consumption growth (E20) |
| Life-saving technologies (O33) | Mortality rates (I12) |
| Economic growth (O49) | Mortality rates (I12) |
| Marginal utility of consumption (D11) | Consumption growth (E20) |
| Consumption growth (E20) | Economic growth (O49) |