Working Paper: NBER ID: w17057
Authors: Oded Galor
Abstract: This paper develops the theoretical foundations and the testable implications of the various mechanisms that have been proposed as possible triggers for the demographic transition. Moreover, it examines the empirical validity of each of the theories and their significance for the understanding of the transition from stagnation to growth. The analysis suggests that the rise in the demand for human capital in the process of development was the main trigger for the decline in fertility and the transition to modern growth
Keywords: Demographic Transition; Human Capital; Fertility Rates
JEL Codes: J10; O10
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| rise in demand for human capital (J24) | higher investments in children's education (I21) |
| higher investments in children's education (I21) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| decline in mortality rates (J11) | fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in women's wages (J31) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in labor force participation (J49) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |
| rise in demand for human capital (J24) | decline in fertility rates (J13) |