Working Paper: NBER ID: w17043
Authors: John P. Conley; Mario J. Crucini; Robert A. Driskill; Ali Sina Onder
Abstract: We investigate how increases in publication delays have affected the life-cycle of publications of recent Ph.D. graduates in economics. We construct a panel dataset of 14,271 individuals who were awarded Ph.D.s between 1986 and 2000 in US and Canadian economics departments. For this population of scholars, we amass complete records of publications in peer reviewed journals listed in the JEL (a total of 368,672 observations). We find evidence of significantly diminished productivity in recent relative to earlier cohorts when productivity of an individual is measured by the number of AER equivalent publications. Diminished productivity is less evident when number of AER equivalent pages is used instead. Our findings are consistent with earlier empirical findings of increasing editorial delays, decreasing acceptance rates at journals, and a trend toward longer manuscripts. This decline in productivity is evident in both graduates of top thirty and non-top thirty ranked economics departments and may have important implications for what should constitute a tenurable record. We also find that the research rankings of the faculty do not line up with the research quality of their students in many cases.
Keywords: publication delays; research productivity; PhD graduates; economics; tenure evaluations
JEL Codes: A11; J0; J11; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| increased publication delays (C41) | diminished productivity of recent cohorts (D29) |
| diminished productivity of recent cohorts (D29) | lower performance relative to older cohorts (D29) |
| publication delays (C41) | publication success across cohorts (D29) |
| institutional quality (L15) | productivity outcomes (O49) |
| cohort effects (C92) | productivity outcomes (O49) |