Estimates of Crowdout from a Public Health Insurance Expansion Using Administrative Data

Working Paper: NBER ID: w17009

Authors: Laura Dague; Thomas DeLeire; Donna Friedsam; Daphne Kuo; Lindsey Leininger; Sarah Meier; Kristen Voskuil

Abstract: We use a combination of administrative and survey data to estimate the fraction of individuals newly enrolled in public health coverage (Wisconsin's combined Medicaid and CHIP program) that had access to private, employer-sponsored health insurance at the time of their enrollment and the fraction that dropped this coverage. We estimate that after expansion of eligibility for public coverage, approximately 20% of new enrollees had access to private health insurance at the time of enrollment and that only 8% dropped this coverage (with the remaining 12% having both private and public coverage). We also identify an "upper bound" estimate, which suggests that the percentage of new enrollees with private insurance coverage at the time of enrollment is, at most, 27%. These estimates of crowd-out are relatively low compared with estimates from the literature based on Medicaid and CHIP expansions, although based both on different data and on a different method.

Keywords: crowdout; public health insurance; Medicaid; CHIP; BadgerCare Plus

JEL Codes: I18


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
20% of new enrollees had access to private insurance (I13)8% dropped this coverage (G52)
20% of new enrollees had access to private insurance (I13)12% maintained both private and public coverage (I13)
Expansion of Wisconsin's public health insurance program (BadgerCare Plus) (I13)crowdout rates lower than previous literature (E43)
Longitudinal administrative data analysis (C41)tracking changes in coverage status over time (C41)
Expansion of Wisconsin's public health insurance program (BadgerCare Plus) (I13)crowdout rate of approximately 19.9% for new enrollees with private health insurance (I13)

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