Working Paper: NBER ID: w16912
Authors: J. William Ambrosini; Karin Mayr; Giovanni Peri; Dragos Radu
Abstract: This paper uses census and survey data to identify the wage earning ability and the selectivity of recent Romanian migrants and returnees. We construct measures of selection across skill groups and estimate the average and the skills-specific premium for migration and return for three typical destinations of Romanian migrants after 1990. We find evidence for a sorting of migrants consistent with skill compensation in destination countries. The premium to return migration increases with migrants' skills and drives the positive selection of returnees. Based on the rationality of these migration decisions, a model of education, migration and return predicts positive long-run effects of increased migration for average skills and wages in Romania.
Keywords: migration; return migration; Romania; wage premium; human capital
JEL Codes: F22; J61; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Increased migration (F22) | Average skills in Romania (J24) |
| Increased migration (F22) | Wages in Romania (J31) |
| Higher skill levels (J24) | Increased likelihood of migration (R23) |
| Wage premiums in destination countries (J31) | Sorting of migrants (F22) |
| Higher skills (J24) | Increased premium to return migration (R23) |
| Migration choices (F22) | Responsive to economic incentives (H39) |
| Higher wage premiums (J31) | Larger shares of migration in specific skill groups (J61) |
| Work experience abroad (F22) | Income premiums for returnees (G52) |
| Positive selection of migrants (F22) | Positive selection of returnees (J68) |