Working Paper: NBER ID: w16699
Authors: Steven Sexton; David Zilberman
Abstract: Increased global demand for biofuels is placing increased pressure on agricultural systems at a time when traditional sources of yield improvements have been mostly exhausted, generating concerns about the future of food prices. This paper estimates the impact of global adoption of genetically engineered (GE) seeds on food supply by exploiting the spatial and temporal variation in the adoption of GE crops to identify the average yield effect due to GE technologies among adopters. The yield gains range from 65% for GE cotton to 12.4% for soybeans and appear to be higher in the developing world than in developed countries. The authors simulate food prices during the 2008 food crisis without GE-seed-induced yield gains. Genetically engineered crops appear to play an important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and global food supplies.
Keywords: Agricultural Biotechnology; Genetically Engineered Crops; Food Supply; Biofuels; Yield Effects
JEL Codes: Q1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Adoption of genetically engineered (GE) crops (Q16) | Increase in food supply (Q11) |
| Yield gains from GE seeds (Q16) | Decrease in food prices during the 2008 food crisis (Q11) |
| Adoption of genetically engineered (GE) crops (Q16) | Increase in yields on adopting farms (Q15) |
| Adoption of genetically engineered (GE) crops (Q16) | Decrease in food prices during the 2008 food crisis (Q11) |