Working Paper: NBER ID: w16663
Authors: Julie Berry Cullen; Mark C. Long; Randall Reback
Abstract: Beginning in 1998, all students in the state of Texas who graduated in the top ten percent of their high school classes were guaranteed admission to any in-state public higher education institution, including the flagships. While the goal of this policy is to improve college access for disadvantaged and minority students, the use of a school-specific standard to determine eligibility could have unintended consequences. Students may increase their chances of being in the top ten percent by choosing a high school with lower-achieving peers. Our analysis of students' school transitions between 8th and 10th grade three years before and after the policy change reveals that this incentive influences enrollment choices in the anticipated direction. Among the subset of students with both motive and opportunity for strategic high school choice, as many as 25 percent enroll in a different high school to improve the chances of being in the top ten percent. Strategic students tend to choose the neighborhood high school in lieu of more competitive magnet schools and, regardless of own race, typically displace minority students from the top ten percent pool. The net effect of strategic behavior is to slightly decrease minority students' representation in the pool.
Keywords: Strategic School Choice; Texas Top Ten Percent Plan; College Admissions; Minority Representation; Behavioral Responses
JEL Codes: D10; H31; H73; I28; J60; J78
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Texas Top Ten Percent Plan (I24) | high school enrollment choices (I21) |
| Texas Top Ten Percent Plan (I24) | strategic behavior of students (C70) |
| Texas Top Ten Percent Plan (I24) | representation of white students in top ten percent pool (I24) |
| strategic behavior of students (C70) | choice of high schools with lower-achieving peers (I24) |
| choice of high schools with lower-achieving peers (I24) | minority representation in top ten percent pool (J15) |