Working Paper: NBER ID: w16638
Authors: Dhaval M. Dave; Inas Rashad Kelly
Abstract: As economic expansions raise employment and wages, associated shifts in income and time constraints would be expected to also impact individuals' health. This study utilizes information from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (1990-2007) to explore the relationship between the risk of unemployment and the consumption of various healthy and unhealthy foods. Estimates, based on fixed effects methodologies, indicate that a higher risk of unemployment is associated with reduced consumption of fruits and vegetables and increased consumption of "unhealthy" foods such as snacks and fast food. In addition to estimation of the average population effect, heterogeneous responses are also identified through detailed sample stratifications and by isolating the effect for those predicted to be at highest risk of unemployment based on their socio-economic characteristics. Among individuals predicted to be at highest risk of being unemployed, a one percentage point increase in the resident state's unemployment rate is associated with a 2-8% reduction in the consumption of fruits and vegetables. The impact is somewhat higher among married individuals and older adults. Supplementary analyses also explore specific mediating pathways, and point to reduced family income and adverse mental health as significant channels underlying the procyclical nature of healthy food consumption.
Keywords: Business cycle; Eating habits; Unemployment; Food consumption
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Unemployment risk (J64) | Food consumption (D10) |
| Unemployment risk (J64) | Reduced family income (J12) |
| Reduced family income (J12) | Food consumption (D10) |
| Unemployment risk (J64) | Adverse mental health (I12) |
| Adverse mental health (I12) | Food consumption (D10) |
| Unemployment risk (J64) | Consumption of unhealthy foods (I12) |