Working Paper: NBER ID: w16508
Authors: Joseph G. Altonji; Sarah Cattan; Iain Ware
Abstract: A number of studies have found substantial correlations in risky behavior between siblings, raising the possibility that adolescents may directly influence the actions of their brothers or sisters. We assess the extent to which correlations in substance use and selling drugs are due to causal effects. Our identification strategy relies on panel data, the fact that the future does not cause the past, and the assumption that the direction of influence is from older siblings to younger siblings. Under this assumption along with other restrictions on dynamics, one can identify the causal effect from a regression of the behavior of the younger sibling on the past behavior and the future behavior of the older sibling. We also estimate a joint dynamic model of the behavior of older and younger siblings that allows for family specific effects, individual specific heterogeneity, and state dependence. We use the model to simulate the dynamic response of substance use to the behavior of the older sibling. Our results suggest that smoking, drinking, and marijuana use are affected by the example of older siblings, but most of the link between siblings arises from common influences.
Keywords: Sibling Influence; Substance Use; Teenage Behavior; Panel Data
JEL Codes: D1; I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Older sibling behavior (C92) | Younger sibling smoking (C92) |
| Older sibling smoking (J12) | Younger sibling smoking (C92) |
| Older sibling marijuana use (J12) | Younger sibling marijuana use (C92) |
| Older sibling behavior (C92) | Younger sibling marijuana use (C92) |
| Older sibling hard drug use (I12) | Younger sibling substance use (C92) |
| Older sibling selling drugs (K42) | Younger sibling substance use (C92) |