Working Paper: NBER ID: w16475
Authors: David A. Jaeger; Esteban F. Klor; Sami H. Miaari; M. Daniele Paserman
Abstract: This paper investigates whether attacks against Israeli targets help Palestinian factions gain public support. We link individual level survey data to the full list of Israeli fatalities during the period of the Second Intifada (2000-2006), and estimate a flexible discrete choice model for faction supported. We find some support for the "outbidding" hypothesis, the notion that Palestinian factions use violence to gain prestige and influence public opinion within the community. In particular, the two leading Palestinian factions, Hamas and Fatah, gain in popularity following successful attacks against Israeli targets. Our results suggest, however, that most movement occurs within either the secular groups or the Islamist groups, and not between them. That is, Fatah's gains come at the expense of smaller secular factions while Hamas' gains come at the expense of smaller Islamic factions and the disaffected. In contrast, attacks by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad lower support for that faction.
Keywords: Violence; Public Support; Palestinian Factions; Second Intifada
JEL Codes: D72; D74; H56
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| successful attacks by Hamas (H84) | increased support for Hamas (F35) |
| successful attacks by Fatah (D74) | increased support for Fatah (F35) |
| successful attacks by Hamas (H84) | decreased support for smaller Islamist factions (F52) |
| successful attacks by Fatah (D74) | decreased support for smaller secular factions (D72) |
| attacks by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) (F51) | decreased support for PIJ (H53) |
| attacks by Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) (F51) | decreased support for Hamas (F51) |