Working Paper: NBER ID: w16471
Authors: Gordon H. Hanson; Craig McIntosh
Abstract: We use census data for the US, Canada, Spain, and UK to estimate bilateral migration rates to these countries from 25 Latin American and Caribbean nations over the period 1980 to 2005. Latin American migration to the US is responsive to labor supply shocks, as predicted by earlier changes in birth cohort sizes, and labor demand shocks associated with balance of payments crises and natural disasters. Latin American migration to Canada, Spain, and the UK, in contrast, is largely insensitive to these shocks, responding only to civil and military conflict. The results are consistent with US immigration policy toward Latin America (which is relatively permissive toward illegal entry) being mediated by market forces and immigration policy in the other countries (which favor skilled workers and asylum seekers, among other groups) insulating them from labor market shocks in the region.
Keywords: migration; Latin America; emigration; labor supply shocks; civil conflict
JEL Codes: F22
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Labor supply shocks (J20) | Migration to the US (F22) |
| Birth cohort sizes increase (J11) | Migration to the US rises (J11) |
| Civil conflict (D74) | Migration to Canada, UK, and Spain (J61) |
| Negative wage shocks (E39) | Migration to Canada, UK, and Spain (J61) |
| Labor supply shocks (J20) | Migration to Canada, UK, and Spain (J61) |