Working Paper: NBER ID: w16454
Authors: Lauren Cohen; Christopher Malloy; Lukasz Pomorski
Abstract: Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trades. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms. Stripping away these routine trades, which comprise over half the entire universe of insider trades, leaves a set of information-rich "opportunistic" trades that contains all the predictive power in the insider trading universe. A portfolio strategy that focuses solely on opportunistic insider trades yields value-weight abnormal returns of 82 basis points per month, while the abnormal returns associated with routine traders are essentially zero. Further, opportunistic trades predict future news and events at a firm level, while routine trades do not.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: G12; G14; G18
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| routine insider trades (G14) | future firm performance (L25) |
| opportunistic insider trades (G14) | future firm performance (L25) |
| opportunistic insider trades (G14) | future returns (G17) |
| routine insider trades (G14) | future returns (G17) |