Working Paper: NBER ID: w16361
Authors: Xin Meng; Nancy Qian; Pierre Yared
Abstract: This paper investigates the institutional causes of China's Great Famine. It presents two empirical findings: 1) in 1959, when the famine began, food production was almost three times more than population subsistence needs; and 2) regions with higher per capita food production that year suffered higher famine mortality rates, a surprising reversal of a typically negative correlation. A simple model based on historical institutional details shows that these patterns are consistent with the policy outcomes in a centrally planned economy in which the government is unable to easily collect and respond to new information in the presence of an aggregate shock to production.
Keywords: China; Great Famine; Food Distribution; Central Planning; Economic Policy
JEL Codes: N45; O43; P16; P21
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| government policy in food distribution (Q18) | Chinese Great Famine (1959-1961) (P32) |
| inflexible procurement system (H57) | mortality rates (I12) |
| higher food production (Q11) | higher mortality rates during the famine (I12) |
| inability to adjust to production shocks (D51) | severe famine outcomes (H84) |
| regional food production (R11) | mortality rates in 1959 (I12) |