Working Paper: NBER ID: w16357
Authors: Casey B. Mulligan
Abstract: Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than in non-recession years, and that supply shifts matter significantly less (if at all) in the recession years. My results are consistent with the hypothesis that recessions are characterized by labor market distortions that are neither alleviated by additional labor demand nor exacerbated by additional labor supply.
Keywords: Labor Supply; Recession; Seasonal Cycle; Employment; Unemployment
JEL Codes: C32; E12; E24; E32
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| traditional Keynesian models (E12) | demand shifts (J20) |
| government interventions and external economic shocks (F69) | employment outcomes (J68) |
| labor supply shifts (J20) | employment outcomes (J68) |
| labor supply shifts during summer (J22) | employment and unemployment during recession years (J64) |
| labor demand during Christmas season (J23) | employment outcomes (J68) |
| recession vs non-recession periods (E32) | seasonal employment patterns (J63) |