Working Paper: NBER ID: w16314
Authors: Hoyt Bleakley; Jeffrey Lin
Abstract: We examine portage sites in the U.S. South, Mid-Atlantic, and Midwest, including those on the fall line, a geomorphologic feature in the southeastern U.S. marking the final rapids on rivers before the ocean. Historically, waterborne transport of goods required portage around the falls at these points, while some falls provided water power during early industrialization. These factors attracted commerce and manufacturing. Although these original advantages have long since been made obsolete, we document the continuing--and even increasing--importance of these portage sites over time. We interpret this finding in a model with path dependence arising from local increasing returns to scale.
Keywords: Portage; Path Dependence; Economic Geography; Increasing Returns
JEL Codes: F1; J1; N9; R1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| historical portage advantages (N71) | present-day population density (J11) |
| historical portage advantages (N71) | sustained economic activity (E32) |
| being 10 miles farther from a portage site (L91) | lower population density (R23) |
| proximity to historical portage sites (N71) | current population density (J11) |
| historical population density (J11) | predictive power of portage for today’s population density (R23) |
| increasing returns to scale in local economic activity (R11) | persistence of population centers (R23) |