Working Paper: NBER ID: w16308
Authors: Michael J. Roberts; Wolfram Schlenker
Abstract: Extreme heat is the single best predictor of corn and soybean yields in the United States. While average yields have risen continuously since World War II, we find no evidence that relative tolerance to extreme heat has improved between 1950 and 2005. Climate change forecasts project a sharp increase in extreme heat by the end of the century, with the potential to significantly reduce yields under current technologies.
Keywords: Agricultural Production; Extreme Heat; Corn Yields; Soybean Yields; Climate Change
JEL Codes: Q1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Yields (G12) | Heat tolerance (Q54) |
| Extreme heat (Q54) | Future agricultural output (Q11) |
| Extreme heat (Q54) | Corn yields (Q13) |
| Extreme heat (Q54) | Soybean yields (Q11) |
| Extreme heat (Q54) | Yields (G12) |