Working Paper: NBER ID: w16173
Authors: David Card; Jochen Kluve; Andrea Weber
Abstract: This paper presents a meta-analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labor market policies. Our sample contains 199 separate "program estimates" - estimates of the impact of a particular program on a specific subgroup of participants - drawn from 97 studies conducted between 1995 and 2007. For about one-half of the sample we have both a short-term program estimate (for a one-year post-program horizon) and a medium- or long-term estimate (for 2 or 3 year horizons). We categorize the estimated post-program impacts as significantly positive, insignificant, or significantly negative. By this criterion we find that job search assistance programs are more likely to yield positive impacts, whereas public sector employment programs are less likely. Classroom and on-the-job training programs yield relatively positive impacts in the medium term, although in the short-term these programs often have insignificant or negative impacts. We also find that the outcome variable used to measure program impact matters. In particular, studies based on registered unemployment are more likely to yield positive program impacts than those based on other outcomes (like employment or earnings). On the other hand, neither the publication status of a study nor the use of a randomized design is related to the sign or significance of the corresponding program estimate. Finally, we use a subset of studies that focus on post-program employment to compare meta-analytic models for the "effect size" of a program estimate with models for the sign and significance of the estimated program effect. We find that the two approaches lead to very similar conclusions about the determinants of program impact.
Keywords: Active Labor Market Policies; Meta-Analysis; Program Evaluation
JEL Codes: J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Outcome variable used to measure program impact (I24) | Affects results (C20) |
| Studies based on registered unemployment (J64) | More favorable outcomes (I14) |
| Effectiveness of ALMPs (J68) | Does not differ significantly by gender (J16) |
| Longer-term evaluations (C41) | More favorable results (C52) |
| Job Search Assistance (JSA) programs (J68) | Positive impacts on labor market outcomes (J48) |
| Public sector employment programs (J68) | Less favorable outcomes (I14) |
| Classroom and on-the-job training programs (M53) | Relatively positive impacts in the medium term (F69) |
| Classroom and on-the-job training programs (M53) | Insignificant or negative effects in the short term (F69) |