Working Paper: NBER ID: w15892
Authors: John Bound; Michael F. Lovenheim; Sarah Turner
Abstract: Time to completion of the baccalaureate degree has increased markedly in the United States over the last three decades, even as the wage premium for college graduates has continued to rise. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 and the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, we show that the increase in time to degree is localized among those who begin their postsecondary education at public colleges outside the most selective universities. In addition, we find evidence that the increases in time to degree were more marked amongst low income students. We consider several potential explanations for these trends. First, we find no evidence that changes in the college preparedness or the demographic composition of degree recipients can account for the observed increases. Instead, our results suggest that declines in collegiate resources in the less-selective public sector increased time to degree. Furthermore, we present evidence of increased hours of employment among students, which is consistent with students working more to meet rising college costs and likely increases time to degree by crowding out time spent on academic pursuits.
Keywords: baccalaureate degree; time to degree; higher education; student employment; institutional resources
JEL Codes: I21; I23
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| declines in institutional resources (I24) | increases in time to degree (C41) |
| increased hours of employment (J29) | increases in time to degree (C41) |
| increased hours of employment (J29) | crowd out time spent on academic pursuits (D29) |
| crowd out time spent on academic pursuits (D29) | increases in time to degree (C41) |
| declines in institutional resources (I24) | increased barriers to attaining required credits (D29) |
| changes in student preparedness (I24) | no account for increases in time to degree (Y40) |