Working Paper: NBER ID: w15891
Authors: Angus S. Deaton
Abstract: I argue that progress in understanding economic development (as in other branches of economics) must come from the investigation of mechanisms; the associated empirical analysis can usefully employ a wide range of experimental and non-experimental methods. I discuss three different areas of research: the life-cycle saving hypothesis and its implication that economic growth drives higher rates of national saving, the theory of speculative commodity storage and its implications for the time-series behavior of commodity prices, and the relationship between economic growth and nutritional improvement. None of these projects has yet been entirely successful in offering a coherent account of the evidence, but all illustrate a process of trial and error, in which although mechanisms are often rejected, unlikely theoretical propositions are sometimes surprisingly verified, while in all cases there is a process of learning about and subsequently modifying our understanding of the underlying mechanisms
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C01; E21; O1; O15; O16; O4
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Economic Growth (O49) | Higher National Saving Rates (E21) |
| Increased Income (E25) | Decreased Calorie Consumption (D12) |
| Supply Shocks (E39) | Commodity Price Dynamics (G13) |