Working Paper: NBER ID: w15886
Authors: Hai Fang; Karen N. Eggleston; John A. Rizzo; Richard J. Zeckhauser
Abstract: Data on 2,355 married women from the 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey are used to study how female employment affects fertility in China. China has deep concerns with both population size and female employment, so the relationship between the two should be better understood. Causality flows in both directions. A conceptual model shows how employment prospects affect fertility. Then a well-validated instrumental variable isolates this effect. Female employment reduces a married woman's preferred number of children by 0.35 on average and her actual number by 0.50. Ramifications for China's one-child policy are discussed.
Keywords: female employment; fertility; China; one-child policy
JEL Codes: J13; J18; O15
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher employment (J68) | Opportunity costs of childbearing (J13) |
| First child is a son (J13) | Fertility preferences (J13) |
| First child is a son (J13) | Actual fertility (J13) |
| Female employment (J21) | Preferred number of children (J13) |
| Female employment (J21) | Actual number of children (J13) |
| Presence of a bus stop (R53) | Female employment (J21) |
| Presence of a bus stop (R53) | Preferred number of children (J13) |
| Presence of a bus stop (R53) | Actual number of children (J13) |