Working Paper: NBER ID: w15864
Authors: Shu Wen Ng; Edward C. Norton; David K. Guilkey; Barry M. Popkin
Abstract: The ongoing debate about the economic causes of obesity has focused on the changing relative prices of diet and exercise. This paper uses a model that explicitly includes time and spatially varying community-level urbanicity and price measures as instruments to obtain statistically correct measures for the endogenous effects of diet, physical activity, drinking, and smoking on weight. We apply a dynamic panel system GMM estimation model to longitudinal (1991-2006) data from China to model weight and find that among adult men in China, about 6.1% of weight gain was due to declines in physical activity and 2.9-3.8% was due to dietary changes over this period. In the long run, physical activity can account for around 6.9% of weight gain, while diet can account for 3.2-4.2% of weight gain.
Keywords: obesity; diet; physical activity; weight gain; China
JEL Codes: I12
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| declines in physical activity (I12) | weight gain (I15) |
| dietary changes (I12) | weight gain (I15) |
| physical activity (I12) | weight gain (I15) |
| diet (I12) | weight gain (I15) |
| increases in dietary fat (H31) | weight gain (I15) |
| decreases in carbohydrate intake (D12) | weight gain (I15) |