Working Paper: NBER ID: w15781
Authors: Deliana Kostova; Hana Ross; Evan Blecher; Sara Markowitz
Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of cigarette prices on youth smoking in lower-income countries using data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS). Country-level heterogeneity is addressed with fixed effects and by directly controlling for confounding environmental factors such as local anti-smoking sentiment, cigarette advertising, anti-smoking media messages, and compliance with youth access restrictions. We find that cigarette price is an important determinant of both smoking participation and conditional demand. The estimated price elasticity of participation is -0.63. The likelihood of participation decreases with anti-smoking sentiment and increases with exposure to cigarette advertising. The estimated price elasticity of conditional cigarette demand is approximately -1.2. Neither anti-smoking sentiment, cigarette advertising, nor access restrictions have an impact on the intensity of smoking among current smokers, but exposure to anti-smoking media may reduce the number of cigarettes smoked.
Keywords: cigarette prices; youth smoking; tobacco control; developing countries; public health
JEL Codes: I10; I01
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Antismoking sentiment (L66) | Cigarette consumption (D12) |
| Cigarette advertising (M38) | Cigarette consumption (D12) |
| Cigarette price (D41) | Smoking participation (I12) |
| Cigarette price (D41) | Conditional cigarette demand (D12) |
| Local antismoking sentiment (L66) | Smoking participation (I12) |
| Cigarette advertising (M38) | Smoking participation (I12) |
| Antismoking media exposure (M38) | Cigarette consumption (D12) |