Working Paper: NBER ID: w15721
Authors: Robert W. Fogel
Abstract: This paper addresses three issues related to the relative rates of growth in the United States, the European Union, and China during the four decades between 2000 and 2040. The first concerns the source of the factors which make it likely that China will continue to grow at a high rate for another generation. The paper argues that this growth will be the result of both favorable economic and political conditions. The second concerns the source of declining GDP growth in the original fifteen nations of the European Union. For these countries, the underlying cause is due in large measure to low fertility rates and an increase in the dependency ratio. The third issue is the projection of long-term U.S. growth in GDP at a rate of 3.7 percent per annum.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: F47; O53
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Favorable economic conditions + Significant investments in education (I25) | China's GDP growth at 8.0 percent per annum (O44) |
| Significant investments in education (I26) | Labor productivity growth (O49) |
| Labor productivity growth + Labor shift from agriculture to industry and services (O49) | China's GDP growth (O49) |
| Low fertility rates + Increasing dependency ratio (J19) | EU15 GDP growth at 1.2 percent per annum (O52) |
| Demographic shift (J11) | Economic productivity strain in EU15 (O49) |
| Rapid technological advancements + Higher labor productivity growth (O49) | US GDP growth at 3.7 percent per annum (O49) |