Working Paper: NBER ID: w15717
Authors: Joshua Graff Zivin; Matthew J. Neidell
Abstract: In this paper we estimate the impacts of climate change on the allocation of time using econometric models that exploit plausibly exogenous variation in daily temperature over time within counties. We find large reductions in U.S. labor supply in industries with high exposure to climate and similarly large decreases in time allocated to outdoor leisure. We also find suggestive evidence of short-run adaptation through temporal substitutions and acclimatization. Given the industrial composition of the US, the net impacts on total employment are likely to be small, but significant changes in leisure time as well as large scale redistributions of income may be consequential. In developing countries, where the industrial base is more typically concentrated in climate-exposed industries and baseline temperatures are already warmer, employment impacts may be considerably larger.
Keywords: Climate Change; Labor Supply; Leisure Activities; Time Allocation
JEL Codes: J22; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Temperature (C29) | Shift activities to cooler times of the day (J22) |
| Higher temperatures (Q54) | Reductions in labor supply in climate-exposed industries (J49) |
| Higher temperatures (Q54) | Decrease in outdoor leisure activities (Q26) |
| Temperature (C29) | Indoor leisure (L83) |
| Temperature (C29) | Changes in time allocation decisions (J29) |