Working Paper: NBER ID: w15696
Authors: Price V. Fishback; Samuel Allen; Jonathan Fox; Brendan Livingston
Abstract: Social welfare programs in the United States are designed to serve as safety nets for people in hard times, in contrast with the universal approach found in many other developed western nations. In a survey of Cliometric studies of social welfare programs in the U.S., we examine the variation in the safety net in the U.S. across states in the 20th century, the determinants of the variation, and its impact on socioeconomic outcomes. The U.S. has always displayed substantial variation in the extent of the safety net because the features of most public social welfare programs are and were determined by local and state governments, even after the federal government became involved. Differences across states persist strongly for typically a decade, although the persistence weakens with time, and there are some periods when federal intervention led to a re-ordering. The rankings of state benefits differs from program to program, and economic and political factors have different weights in determining benefit levels in panel data estimation of their effects. Variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s had significant impact on labor markets, economic activity, family formation, death rates, and crime.
Keywords: Income Maintenance; Social Welfare Programs; Cliometrics; Socioeconomic Outcomes
JEL Codes: H53; H75; N32; N42; R50
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s (H53) | labor markets (J40) |
| variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s (H53) | economic activity (E20) |
| variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s (H53) | family formation (J12) |
| variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s (H53) | death rates (J11) |
| variation in benefits across programs during the early 1900s (H53) | crime rates (K42) |
| higher benefits (J32) | improved socioeconomic outcomes (I24) |
| federal government's involvement in the 1930s (H10) | reordering of state benefits (H55) |
| reordering of state benefits (H55) | altering the landscape of social welfare programs (H53) |