Working Paper: NBER ID: w15684
Authors: Ran Abramitzky; Leah Platt Boustan; Katherine Eriksson
Abstract: The Age of Mass Migration (1850-1913) was among the largest migration episodes in history. During this period, the United States maintained open borders. Using a novel dataset of Norway-to-US migrants, we estimate the return to migration while accounting for migrant selection across households by comparing migrants with their brothers who stayed in Norway. We also compare the fathers of migrants and non-migrants by wealth and occupation, and examine migrants' assimilation in the US labor market. We find that, unhindered by entry restrictions, migrants were negatively selected from the sending population and their return to migration was relatively low.
Keywords: migration; economic outcomes; self-selection
JEL Codes: J61; N31
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Return to migration for Norwegian migrants to the U.S. (J61) | Estimated to be approximately 60% (C13) |
| Negative selection (C52) | Understated return to migration by 20 to 50% (J11) |
| Migrants with poorer economic prospects in Norway (J69) | Negative selection (C52) |
| Fathers of migrants with lower asset holdings and less favorable occupations (J69) | Negative selection from sending population (C52) |
| Naive OLS estimates (C51) | Biased downward due to negative selection (J79) |
| Urban migrants controlling for selection bias (R23) | Significant increase in estimated returns (C13) |
| Negative selection from urban areas (R23) | Lower average ability or fewer connections among those who migrated (J61) |