Working Paper: NBER ID: w15683
Authors: Brian A. Jacob; Tamara Wilder
Abstract: This paper examines the role of educational expectations in the educational attainment process. We utilize data from a variety of datasets to document and analyze the trends in educational expectations between the mid-1970s and the early 2000s. We focus on differences across racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups and examine how young people update their expectations during high school and beyond. The results indicate that expectations rose for all students with the greatest increases among young women. Expectations have become somewhat less predictive of attainment over the past several decades but expectations remain strong predictors of attainment above and beyond other standard determinants of schooling. Interestingly, the data demonstrate that the majority (about 60 percent) of students update their expectations at least once between eighth grade and eight years post-high school. Updating appears to be based, in part, on the acquisition of new information about academic ability.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: I20; J01; J24
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher educational expectations (I23) | Higher educational attainment (I23) |
| Higher educational expectations (I23) | Enroll in postsecondary education (I23) |
| Expectations influence decisions to enroll in postsecondary education (I21) | Higher educational attainment (I23) |
| Expectations (D84) | Likelihood of taking college preparatory courses (A21) |
| Expectations (D84) | Engaging in behaviors that enhance academic performance (I23) |
| Expectations (D84) | Impact of parental involvement and educational resources (I24) |
| Academic performance (D29) | Educational expectations (I21) |
| Students update their expectations based on new information about academic abilities (D84) | Adjustments in educational trajectories (J62) |
| Lower SES backgrounds (I24) | Lower expectations (D84) |