Working Paper: NBER ID: w15558
Authors: Zeynep K. Hansen; Gary D. Libecap; Scott E. Lowe
Abstract: Greater historical perspective is needed to enlighten current debate about future human responses to higher temperatures and increased precipitation variation. We analyze the impact of climatic conditions and variability on agricultural production in five semi-arid western states. We assemble county-level data on dams and other major water infrastructure; agricultural crop mixes and yields; precipitation and temperature; soil quality, and topography. Using this extensive data set, we analyze the impact of water infrastructure investments on crop mix and yields in affected counties relative to similarly-endowed counties that lack such infrastructure. We find that water infrastructure smoothes agricultural crop production and increases the likelihood of a successful harvest, especially during times of severe drought or excessive precipitation.
Keywords: climate variability; water infrastructure; agricultural production; drought; flood
JEL Codes: N5; N51; N52; Q25; Q54
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Handling climatic variability (Q54) |
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Smoothing agricultural crop production (Q16) |
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Likelihood of successful harvests (Q15) |
| Excessive precipitation (Q54) | Agricultural productivity (Q11) |
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Wheat yields (Q11) |
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Corn yields (Q13) |
| Water infrastructure (L95) | Agricultural production (Q11) |
| Drought (Q54) | Wheat acreage (Q15) |
| Drought (Q54) | Failed acreage (Q15) |
| Drought (Q54) | Wheat productivity (Q11) |
| Drought (Q54) | Barley productivity (Q11) |