Working Paper: NBER ID: w15544
Authors: Matthew Gentzkow; Jesse M. Shapiro; Michael Sinkinson
Abstract: We use new data on entries and exits of US daily newspapers from 1869 to 2004 to estimate effects on political participation, party vote shares, and electoral competitiveness. Our identification strategy exploits the precise timing of these events and allows for the possibility of confounding trends. We find that newspapers have a robust positive effect on political participation, with one additional newspaper increasing both presidential and congressional turnout by approximately 0.3 percentage points. Newspaper competition is not a key driver of turnout: our effect is driven mainly by the first newspaper in a market, and the effect of a second or third paper is significantly smaller. The effect on presidential turnout diminishes after the introduction of radio and television, while the estimated effect on congressional turnout remains similar up to recent years. We find no evidence that partisan newspapers affect party vote shares, with confidence intervals that rule out even moderate-sized effects. We find no clear evidence that newspapers systematically help or hurt incumbents.
Keywords: newspapers; political participation; vote shares; electoral competitiveness
JEL Codes: D72; L82; N81
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| newspapers (Y90) | political participation (D72) |
| one additional newspaper (Y50) | presidential turnout (D72) |
| one additional newspaper (Y50) | congressional turnout (D72) |
| first newspaper in a market (D40) | political participation (D72) |
| radio and television introduction (Y20) | presidential turnout (D72) |
| newspapers (Y90) | party vote shares (D72) |
| Republican newspaper's entry or exit (D72) | Republican presidential vote share (D79) |
| information provision by newspapers (L86) | political participation (D72) |