Working Paper: NBER ID: w15376
Authors: Gilles Duranton; Matthew A. Turner
Abstract: We investigate the relationship between interstate highways and highway vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in US cities. We find that VKT increases proportionately to highways and identify three important sources for this extra VKT: an increase in driving by current residents; an increase in transportation intensive production activity; and an inflow of new residents. The provision of public transportation has no impact on VKT. We also estimate the aggregate city level demand for VKT and find it to be very elastic. We conclude that an increased provision of roads or public transit is unlikely to relieve congestion.
Keywords: road congestion; vehicle kilometers traveled; public transportation; urban economics
JEL Codes: L91; R41
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| road provision (R48) | vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) (R48) |
| length of interstate highways (H54) | vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) (R48) |
| road capacity (R48) | congestion (L91) |
| stock of roads in a city (R42) | demand for travel (R41) |
| availability of roads (R42) | commercial driving and trucking (L92) |
| public transportation (L91) | vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) (R48) |
| individual driving behavior, migration patterns, and economic activity (R23) | vehicle kilometers traveled (vkt) (R48) |
| increased road capacity (R42) | travel costs for drivers (R48) |