Working Paper: NBER ID: w15310
Authors: William N. Evans; Timothy J. Moore
Abstract: We document a within-month mortality cycle where deaths decline before the 1st day of the month and then spike after the 1st. This cycle is present across a wide variety of causes and demographic groups. A similar cycle exists for a range of activities, suggesting the mortality cycle may be due to short-term variation in levels of activity. We provide evidence that the within-month activity cycle is generated by liquidity. Our results suggest a causal pathway whereby liquidity problems reduce activity, which in turn reduces mortality. These relationships help explain the pro-cyclic nature of mortality.
Keywords: mortality; liquidity; economic activity; health outcomes
JEL Codes: D10; D12; I10; I12; I38
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Liquidity problems (G33) | Decreased activity (I12) |
| Decreased activity (I12) | Increased mortality (I12) |
| Liquidity problems (G33) | Increased mortality (I12) |
| Income payments (H55) | Increased mortality (I12) |
| Increased activity (E63) | Higher mortality rates (I12) |
| Heavy meals and strenuous activities (I19) | Higher mortality (heart attacks) (I12) |
| Income receipt (D33) | Mortality spikes (I12) |