Aggregate Labor Market Outcomes: The Role of Choice and Chance

Working Paper: NBER ID: w15252

Authors: Per Krusell; Toshihiko Mukoyama; Richard Rogerson; Aysegul Sahin

Abstract: Commonly used frictional models of the labor market imply that changes in frictions have large effects on steady state employment and unemployment. We use a model that features both frictions and an operative labor supply margin to examine the robustness of this feature to the inclusion of a empirically reasonable labor supply channel. The response of unemployment to changes in frictions is similar in both models. But the labor supply response present in our model greatly attenuates the effects of frictions on steady state employment relative to the simplest matching model, and two common extensions. We also find that the presence of empirically plausible frictions has virtually no impact on the response of aggregate employment to taxes.

Keywords: Labor Market; Frictions; Employment; Unemployment; Tax Policy

JEL Codes: E24; J22; J64


Causal Claims Network Graph

Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.


Causal Claims

CauseEffect
frictions (D74)unemployment (J64)
frictions (D74)employment (J68)
decrease in the arrival rate of employment opportunities (J63)unemployment (J64)
decrease in the arrival rate of employment opportunities (J63)employment (J68)
frictions (D74)response of aggregate employment to tax changes (H32)
distribution of idiosyncratic shocks (D39)employment outcomes (J68)

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