Working Paper: NBER ID: w15220
Authors: Andrew Gelman; Nate Silver; Aaron Edlin
Abstract: One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state-by-state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: H0; K0
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| necessity of a state's electoral votes (K16) | probability that the vote in that state is tied (K16) |
| probability that the vote in that state is tied (K16) | probability that a vote is decisive (D79) |
| necessity of a state's electoral votes (K16) | probability that a vote is decisive (D79) |
| probability that a vote is decisive (D79) | overall electoral landscape (K16) |
| overall electoral landscape (K16) | necessity of a state's electoral votes (K16) |