Working Paper: NBER ID: w15211
Authors: Pedro Carneiro; James J. Heckman; Edward J. Vytlacil
Abstract: This paper develops methods for evaluating marginal policy changes. We characterize how the effects of marginal policy changes depend on the direction of the policy change, and show that marginal policy effects are fundamentally easier to identify and to estimate than conventional treatment parameters. We develop the connection between marginal policy effects and the average effect of treatment for persons on the margin of indifference between participation in treatment and nonparticipation, and use this connection to analyze both parameters. We apply our analysis to estimate the effect of marginal changes in tuition on the return to going to college.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C14
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| marginal policy relevant treatment effect (mprte) (C22) | easier to identify and estimate (C13) |
| marginal policy relevant treatment effect (mprte) (C22) | direction of a proposed marginal policy change (D78) |
| marginal policy relevant treatment effect (mprte) (C22) | weighted average derivative (C69) |
| marginal policy relevant treatment effect (mprte) (C22) | average marginal treatment effect (amte) for individuals on the margin of indifference (C22) |
| marginal policy change (D78) | average effect of treatment for those at the margin of indifference (D11) |
| changes in tuition fees (I22) | impact on college attendance and associated returns (D29) |