Working Paper: NBER ID: w15208
Authors: David H. Romer
Abstract: This paper describes a new data set of the forecasts of output growth, inflation, and unemployment prepared by individual members of the Federal Open Market Committee. The paper discusses the scope of the data set, possibilities for extending it, and some potential uses. It offers a preliminary examination of some of the cross-sectional features of the data.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: E52; E58
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Higher output growth forecasts (O47) | Higher inflation forecasts (E31) |
| Higher GDP growth forecasts (O49) | Lower unemployment forecasts (E27) |
| Higher output growth forecasts (O47) | Inflation forecasts (E31) |
| Higher GDP growth forecasts (O49) | Unemployment forecasts (E27) |
| Forecasts of GDP growth (F17) | Forecasts of unemployment rate (E27) |