Working Paper: NBER ID: w15203
Authors: Yuchu Shen; Jeremy Arkes; Boon Wah Kwan; Lai Yee Tan; Thomas V. Williams
Abstract: This study estimates the effect of deployment location and length on the risk of developing PTSD, relative to what it would be from the normal military operations. We use a random sample of activity-duty enlisted personnel serving between 2001 and 2006. We identify PTSD cases from TRICARE medical records and link deployment information from Contingent Tracking System. Comparing to those in other duties around the world, deployment to Iraq/Afghanistan increases the odds of developing PTSD substantially, with the largest effect observed for the Navy (OR=9.06, p<0.01) and the smallest effect for the Air Force (OR=1.25, p<0.01). A deployment longer than 180 days increases the odds of PTSD by 1.11 times to 2.84 times, depending on the service, compared to a tour under 120 days. For Army and Navy, a deployment to Iraq/Afghanistan further exacerbates the adverse effect of tour length. Our research identifies the extent of PTSD across services and quantifies the risks associated with OEF/OIF deployment intensity. Further research is needed for effective monitoring and preventive measures of PTSD on the active duty population.
Keywords: PTSD; OEF/OIF; Deployment Intensity; Military Personnel
JEL Codes: I1
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| Deployment to Iraq/Afghanistan (H56) | Increased odds of developing PTSD (H56) |
| Length of deployment > 180 days (H56) | Increased odds of PTSD (H56) |
| Longer deployments to Iraq/Afghanistan (H56) | Exacerbated risk of PTSD (E71) |
| Deployment characteristics (location and duration) (R53) | Diagnosis of PTSD (C99) |
| Deployment location and length (R53) | PTSD risk (H56) |