Working Paper: NBER ID: w15160
Authors: Eric M. Leeper; Michael Plante; Nora Traum
Abstract: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to U.S. data under a variety of specifications of fiscal policy rules. We obtain several results. First, the best fitting model allows a rich set of fiscal instruments to respond to stabilize debt. Second, responses of aggregate variables to fiscal policy shocks under rich fiscal rules can vary considerably from responses that allow only non-distortionary fiscal instruments to finance debt. Third, based on estimated policy rules, transfers, capital tax rates, and government spending have historically responded strongly to government debt, while labor taxes have responded more weakly. Fourth, all components of the intertemporal condition linking debt to expected discounted surpluses---transfers, spending, tax revenues, and discount factors---display instances where their expected movements are important in establishing equilibrium. Fifth, debt-financed fiscal shocks trigger long lasting dynamics so that short-run multipliers can differ markedly from long-run multipliers, even in their signs.
Keywords: No keywords provided
JEL Codes: C11; E32; E62
Edges that are evidenced by causal inference methods are in orange, and the rest are in light blue.
| Cause | Effect |
|---|---|
| government spending (H59) | government debt (H63) |
| lump-sum transfers (F16) | government debt (H63) |
| capital taxes (H24) | government debt (H63) |
| labor taxes (J39) | government debt (H63) |
| fiscal instruments (E62) | government debt stabilization (H63) |
| nondistortionary fiscal instruments (H31) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| distortionary fiscal instruments (H31) | economic outcomes (F61) |
| debt-financed fiscal shocks (E62) | long-lasting dynamics (C69) |
| fiscal adjustments (E62) | economic stability (E63) |